What Are the Odds of a White Thanksgiving in Your City? Here’s the New Data

A snowy Thanksgiving isn’t something most of us expect — or even think about. But when it does happen, it feels a little magical, like the holidays showed up early. So, which cities actually have a real shot at celebrating turkey day with fresh snow on the ground?

A new analysis from Action Network dug into more than five decades of Thanksgiving weather data from NOAA climate stations across the country. To count as a White Thanksgiving, a city needed at least one inch of snow on the ground or 0.1 inches of new snowfall on the holiday — the same criteria the National Weather Service uses for a White Christmas.

The results show just how rare this really is. Most cities sit somewhere between a 3% and 15% chance. Only one major U.S. city even cracks 50%. And a few surprising places — the kind you’d never associate with early-season snow — actually outrank some of the country’s most winter-famous spots.

Below, here are the 10 U.S. cities most likely to see a White Thanksgiving, starting at #10.

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10. Denver, Colorado — 27.3%

Denver’s odds look solid on paper, but the city is notoriously unpredictable. Some years bring big holiday storms, others are bone dry. That volatility keeps Denver below the traditional “snow capitals,” but a quarter of Thanksgivings still arrive with at least a dusting.

9 (tie). Billings, Montana — 31.6%

Billings tends to slip under the radar, but early cold snaps and upslope storms give it surprisingly strong odds. It actually beats Chicago, Boston, Detroit, and a lot of bigger metros that get far more winter hype.

9 (tie). Buffalo, New York — 31.6%

Buffalo’s reputation speaks for itself. Lake Erie starts firing early, and those November lake-effect bands often show up just in time for the holiday. A full one-third of Thanksgivings arrive white.

7. Spokane, Washington — 32.7%

If you only know Washington for Seattle’s gray drizzle, Spokane will surprise you. The eastern side of the state gets colder, faster, and early snow isn’t unusual here.

5 (tie). Salt Lake City, Utah — 33.3%

Mountain weather does the heavy lifting. Cold fronts dropping out of the north plus Wasatch storms give Salt Lake City Thanksgiving odds that beat most Midwestern cities.

5 (tie). Rochester, New York — 33.3%

Lake Ontario helps this one along. Rochester sees early-season lake-effect bands more often than you’d think, pushing its Thanksgiving odds to roughly one in three.

4. Syracuse, New York — 38.6%

Syracuse is the powerhouse of the Northeast thanks to its classic lake-effect setup. When cold air hits warm water in November, flakes start flying — and Syracuse usually feels it first.

3. Minneapolis, Minnesota — 43.6%

Minnesota winters get a head start compared to most of the country. Minneapolis lands just under a true coin-flip, with consistent early-season cold and frequent November storms.

2. Fargo, North Dakota — 43.9%

Long, brutal winters show up early here. Fargo barely edges out Minneapolis, with nearly half of its Thanksgivings arriving snowy or snow-covered.

1. Anchorage, Alaska — 64.5%

Anchorage isn’t just the frontrunner — it’s in another universe. Nearly two-thirds of Thanksgivings are white. Deep early-season snowpack and consistently cold November weather make this the only major U.S. city where a White Thanksgiving is more likely than not.

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