A New Holiday Travel Forecast Warns 2025 Could Be a Mess — Here’s What to Expect
Holiday travel is always a little chaotic, but this year is shaping up to be especially unpredictable after the FAA temporarily required airlines to cut flights by 10% earlier this month. Even though operations have resumed, those schedule adjustments created a ripple effect that could make the next few weeks more crowded, more expensive, and simply harder to navigate.
A new travel survey of more than 1,000 people reveals how Americans are approaching the 2025 holiday season — and where the pressure points are likely to hit.
Most Travelers Are Still Going Somewhere — Just More Strategically
About 73% of people expect to travel for at least one holiday. Christmas is the biggest travel window, while New Year’s is the smallest. That’s slightly lower than last year, but still a heavy volume.
And cost? Surprisingly, not the reason most people are staying home. Only 10–16% cited budget concerns. The big blockers are simply wanting to stay home or having family/work commitments.
Travelers Are Sticking With Familiar Places
Across all three holidays, the majority of travelers say they’re returning to places they’ve already visited. Thanksgiving is still the most family-focused, while New Year’s travelers are the most likely to take a vacation — and the most likely to leave the country.
- 57% of New Year’s travelers are going international
- Thanksgiving travelers remain the most domestic
- Christmas sits right in the middle
Flying Is Still the Main Way People Are Getting Around
Even with this month’s temporary flight reductions, flying is still the dominant choice. Between 73% and 83% of travelers across the holidays say they’re booking flights.
Nearly half plan to redeem points — smart move for a year with lingering schedule shuffles, because award tickets tend to be more flexible than basic economy cash fares.
The Best and Worst Days to Fly for Thanksgiving 2025
No surprise: the Sunday after Thanksgiving is still the busiest travel day of the year — and with the earlier flight reshuffling, it could feel even more congested.
Thanksgiving Day itself continues to be one of the easiest (and oddly cheapest) days to fly, since most travelers are already where they want to be.
International deals tend to pop around Thanksgiving because so many Americans stay domestic. Some standout recent award fares:
- NYC → Amsterdam for 9,000 points
- LA → Auckland (business) for 80,000 points
- DC → Dublin (business) for 45,000 points
Christmas Travel: High Prices and Busy Airports Are Already Here
Christmas is consistently one of the most expensive travel periods, and 2025 is no exception. The Friday before Christmas is historically one of the busiest days at U.S. airports, and that pattern will likely hold.
Looking to reduce costs? Aim for destinations that don’t observe major December holidays. Spots like Morocco, Turkey, Vietnam, and Japan don’t experience the same Christmas spike.
And if you’re sitting on points, this is one of the best times all year to use them — award rates often stay steadier even as cash fares jump.
New Year’s Travel: Expect the Steepest Prices of All
If you’re flying somewhere known for huge celebrations — New York, Sydney, Rio, Reykjavik — brace yourself. These destinations see extreme demand every year.
New Year’s Eve itself can actually be a great day to fly, especially if you’re taking an overnight flight. The roughest return window? January 2–4, when everyone is trying to get back home before work starts.
Expert Tips for Navigating 2025 Holiday Travel
Here’s what can make this year a little smoother:
Use points when possible
Award tickets are more flexible and can save you if plans shift.
Travel on the holiday itself
Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Eve/Day, and New Year’s Eve are often substantially quieter.
Avoid peak warm-weather hubs
The Caribbean, Hawaii, and Mexico hit peak season. Expect packed flights and very limited award availability.
Give yourself buffer days
If your January 3 flight gets canceled or delayed, you don’t want that to derail work or school.
Book early-in-the-day departures
Morning flights are the least disrupted once delays start stacking up.
Arrive early everywhere
TSA, check-in counters, and even airport parking lots tend to be slammed around the holidays.
Pack smart — especially if you must check a bag
Anything vital should stay with you in the cabin.
Book directly with the airline
If something goes wrong, you’ll be helped faster than if you used a third-party site.
Bottom Line
Even with operations back to normal, the early-season flight cuts tightened schedules at a time when most Americans are traveling anyway. But with good timing, flexibility, and a few smart strategies, it’s still very possible to dodge the worst crowds — or even score a deal or two along the way.
This European Country Will Require Americans To Be Fingerprinted
Passport stamps are being replaced — here’s what Americans should expect.
Read more: This European Country Will Require Americans To Be Fingerprinted
One Less Hassle at the Airport: TSA Changes Longstanding Security Rule
No PreCheck? No problem! This TSA update applies to nearly everyone.
Read more: One Less Hassle at the Airport: TSA Changes Longstanding Security Rule
The in-flight mistake that could now land you a surprise fine
Plane etiquette just got real, and breaking it could cost you.
Read more: The in-flight mistake that could now land you a surprise fine
TSA Is Begging Travelers: Please Stop Smuggling Animals in Your Underwear at Airport Security
In a story that feels more like the start of a stand-up set than a legitimate news report, TSA just had to remind travelers, again, to please stop hiding animals in bizarre places before going through airport security. Yes, this is real life.
Read more: TSA Is Begging Travelers: Please Stop Smuggling Animals in Your Underwear at Airport Security
The 10 U.S. Airlines Most Likely to Lose Your Luggage, Ranked
Using data from the U.S. Department of Transportation between 2021 and 2024, researchers looked at how many bags (including wheelchairs and scooters) were boarded and how many were reported as mishandled. Here are the top 10 airlines with the worst baggage mishandling rates.
Read more: The 10 U.S. Airlines Most Likely to Lose Your Luggage, Ranked
Glad I stayed home this year!
I hope travel will improve.
holiday travel is always a fresh start 🙂
This article gave me a reality check! I’m rethinking my whole holiday travel plan and prepping way earlier than usual.
Looks like holiday travel is going to be hectic, so planning ahead is definitely the way to go!
Passengers should always book with the airline or its site directly. Stay away from 3rd party outlets, as you will be the last in the priority in which the airline handles conflicting issues.